If this year’s weather conditions give way to the “La Niña” phenomenon, the 2020 Tropical Cyclone Season for the Atlantic Ocean could be more active.
That is the first predictions by experts from Colorado State University, issued Thursday, April 2, forecast 16 named tropical storms, including eight hurricanes.
The report issued by researchers Philip Klotzbach, Michael M. Bell, and Jhordanne Jones includes eight tropical storms, four categories I and II hurricanes of the Saffir-Simpson scale, and four hurricanes of intensity III, IV and V.
Last year, the forecast was of six were tropical storms, five category I and II hurricanes, and three intensity III, IV, and V hurricanes.
Meteorologist Juan Vázquez Montalvo explained that this is the first of four forecasts specialists will make throughout the season, based on temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, which are above average records.
“Also, he explained, the current conditions could give way to the formation of the “La Niña” phenomenon. This causes an increase in sea temperature and favors a significant formation of tropical events due to a decrease in the wind, contrary to “El Niño” which supports them and reduces their formation”.
“The forecast does not say here where the cyclones will form, but the Yucatan Peninsula, is prone to these phenomena. People have to keep an eye on the behavior of the season that will begin on June 1 and make preparations in advance in case any of them affect the Peninsula,” the expert said.
The official forecast of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is expected to be published next May.
Besides, the Colorado state hurricane research team will also publish updated forecasts on June 4, July 7, and August 6. Vazquez Montalvo stressed that regardless of the number of cyclones to be formed the authorities and citizens of the Peninsula should prepare to face at least one intense tropical storm.
“This is the slogan that should be kept each year and that the authorities emphasize, we must prepare as if one were coming, no matter what. The Yucatan has a very high and globally recognized culture of prevention against tropical cyclones. We shouldn’t lose that because, since we have not been hit by one in 17 years -since Hurricane Isidore for the Yucatan and Dean for the rest of the Peninsula, the population cannot relax,” he said.
Meteorologist Vázquez Montalvo emphasized that a whole generation has not lived through a hurricane, since the Yucatan Peninsula hasn’t been hit by one in the last 17 years. “Also”, he added, “many people from other states in the country and the world currently live here. They do not have the culture of prevention, since they have never lived a hurricane. Which is why it is essential to reinforce the measures and prepare in case of any contingency”.
The Yucatan Times
Newsroom
