EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME WINDS
A Hurricane Warning continues for Tulum to Dzilam, Mexico, and Cozumel.
– A Tropical Storm Warning continues for the Cuba province of Pinar del Rio, Isle of Youth, Punta Herrero to Tulum, and Dzilam to Progresso.
– The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the province of La Habana.
– For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 9 to 13 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
At 5 p.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Delta was located over the northwest Caribbean Sea about 215 miles (345 km) east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts – a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km). Some additional strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast Yucatan peninsula Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday.
There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane watches will likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.
Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. During the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides.
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 11 p.m. EDT with in intermediate advisory at 8 p.m. EDT – www.hurricanes.gov
