– A Hurricane Warning continues for Tulum to Dzilam, Mexico, and Cozumel.
– A Tropical Storm Warning continues for the Cuba province of Pinar del Rio, Punta Herrero to Tulum, Mexico, and Dzilam to Progreso, Mexico.
A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 8 to 12 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 8 ft above normal tide levels along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later today.
At 7 a.m. CDT, the center of Hurricane Delta was located inland over the Yucatan peninsula about 35 miles (55 km) west of Cancun, Mexico. Delta is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A WeatherFlow observing site at Puerto Morelos, Mexico, has recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 75 mph (122 km/h) after the passage of the center over that location. A wind gust to 64 mph (104 km/h) was recently reported on Cozumel, Mexico. Although some additional weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula this morning, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico
Wednesday night and Thursday, and Delta could become a category 4 hurricane again by late Thursday. Weakening is expected as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday.
There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials.
Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. In addition, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, are expected across portions of western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides.
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 10 a.m. CDT – www.hurricanes.gov
